U.S. new-vehicle sales are forecast to jump about 8% this month as electric-vehicle shoppers rush to secure expiring tax breaks. The bounce comes despite trade tariffs already pumping up many models’ prices.

Further juicing August numbers is an early Labor Day weekend with its traditional auto-buying surge, though J.D. Power said in its forecast that incentives are flat for the holiday shoppers.

The data provider projects just under 1.3 million units in retail sales this month when adjusted for the number of selling days. It puts the average transaction price at $44,750, up 2% year-over-year. Average incentive spending is estimated to rise 1% to $3,105, or a flat 6% of manufacturer’s suggested retail price.

Retailer profit per unit, including finance-and-insurance sales, is also essentially flat from July and a year ago at $2,202, J.D. Power estimated.

Consumers, meanwhile, are walking away with more auto loan debt than ever, with average monthly payments of $743, a record for August, according to J.D. Power data.

U.S. trade tariffs are influencing vehicle pricing and incentives, adding an average of $4,275 per unit, though some models have so far been unscathed, J.D. Power said. 

“Further adjustments are likely as the year unfolds and new model-year introductions arrive, though many companies may hold back their most definitive incentive actions until year-end,” said the company’s data and analytics division president, Thomas King.

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