Though U.S. auto dealers say they’re optimistic about their market after the election, a global 2025 forecast takes a conservative view.
The S&P Global Mobility outlook downgrades market forecasts “across the board” due to anticipated U.S. “policy shifts.”
Its global light-vehicle sales forecast expects a modest 1.7% increase in sales to 89.6 million units, as it sees “significant” negative affects on consumer demand.
Some global markets’ growth has slowed, in some cases due to slow electric-vehicle adoption, while interest rates and vehicle prices remain high, along with prices of other goods, S&P pointed out. Meanwhile, the incoming Trump administration has vowed to enact trade tariffs and pull federal EV tax credits.
The forecaster also cites “uneven consumer confidence,” concerns over energy prices and supplies, auto lending risks, and electrification challenges as drags on sales.
"2025 is shaping up to be ultra-challenging for the auto industry, as key regional demand factors limit demand potential and the new U.S. administration adds fresh uncertainty from day one," said Colin Couchman, executive director of global light vehicle forecasting for S&P Global Mobility in a press release.
"A key concern is how "natural" EV demand fares as governments rethink policy support, especially incentives and subsidies, industrial policy, tariffs, and fast evolving OEM target setting."
Due to the mix of factors, S&P anticipates U.S. new-vehicle sales alone to increase just 1% to 16.2 million units as it expects vehicle prices to fall but stay high and inflation to continue to bedevil. The forecaster foresees continued inventory progress, “but careful management is expected.”
“2025 brings with it mixed opportunities and uncertainty for the auto industry as a new administration and policy proposals take hold," said Chris Hopson, S&P’s manager of North American light vehicle sales forecasting.
“Combined with an uneasy consumer, we project this translates to mild growth prospects for auto sales."
Meanwhile, S&P forecasts China’s auto market to grow 3% to 26.6 million units as its main government and local municipalities continue offering incentives and vehicle price wars persist.
S&P expects Japan’s auto sales, after flagging last year, to jump 5% to 4.6 million units.
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